Illicit Trade Isn’t Just a Crime—It’s a Culture Problem
Reading about the illegal cigarette factory bust in Belgium on JTI’s Linkedin timeline got me thinking. The €14.4 million in lost tax revenue is significant, but the real cost runs much deeper. Illicit trade fuels organised crime, exploits vulnerable people, and destabilises communities. With over one in three cigarettes in Belgium untaxed, this issue isn’t disappearing anytime soon, in Belgium or elsewhere.
As co-founder of Peace Through Prosperity (PTP), I’ve worked in marginalised communities where economic disenfranchisement pushes people towards illicit activities. Often, it’s not a matter of choice but a lack of viable alternatives. This experience has shown me that tackling illicit trade isn’t just about enforcement—it’s about shifting behaviour and culture. Criminal networks adapt fast, operate flexibly, and collaborate seamlessly. We need to do the same.
Illicit Trade is More Than Crime—It’s a Culture Problem
Illicit trade thrives in socially and economically excluded communities, where it becomes normalised as a survival strategy. Over time, working outside the law is seen not as criminal, but as smart, resourceful, and necessary.
Governments and enforcement agencies often attack the trade itself but fail to address why people engage in it. The real challenge? Changing the culture and behaviour that sustain illicit economies.
Reframing Agency: From Illicit to Legal Means
Illicit trade is a perversion of agency—people seeking control in an economy that has failed them. Criminal networks provide fast money, security, and a sense of belonging. To break this cycle, we need to create compelling legal alternatives.
Here’s where lean and agile thinking plays a game-changing role:
Micro-Economies for At-Risk Communities
Agile interventions can help people develop legal income streams through small, testable economic opportunities.
Instead of top-down economic models, co-created solutions empower communities, adapting based on real-world feedback.
Building a Culture of Legal Enterprise
A shift in behaviour needs more than education—it requires cultural transformation.
Lean mapping can help track individuals' journeys into illicit trade, identify risk points, and design interventions that make legal work more attractive.
Disrupting Recruitment into Illicit Networks
Enforcement often focuses on cutting off supply, but lean thinking tells us to attack root causes.
Community-driven interventions can replace recruitment pipelines with legitimate pathways into legal employment.
This is Not Just Theory—It’s 15 Years of Real-World Impact
The above isn’t based on abstract theory—it’s drawn from 15 years of hands on experience implementing these initiatives in Pakistan, Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan. Through Peace Through Prosperity’s programmes, we’ve worked directly with marginalised communities, testing and refining agile interventions to help people break away from illicit networks and build sustainable, legal livelihoods. The results speak for themselves: when people have better choices, they make them.
This practical experience proves that shifting behaviour and culture isn’t just possible—it’s necessary to truly disrupt illicit economies.
Think Like the Adversary: Fast, Flexible, and Coordinated
Illicit trade is adaptive and resilient—so our response must be equally dynamic.
1. Break Silos: Cross-Functional Rapid Response Teams
Customs, tax authorities, and law enforcement must work in real-time collaboration rather than in slow-moving bureaucracies.
Daily stand-ups/alignments and rapid decision-making can improve enforcement efficiency.
2. Smarter Data: Predict, Don’t Just React
AI-driven analytics can predict smuggling routes, illicit supply chains, and emerging threats.
Lean methodologies like value stream mapping can reveal where enforcement needs to strike proactively.
3. Continuous Learning: Retrospectives for Law Enforcement
After every raid or crackdown, agencies should conduct lessons-learned retrospectives to refine strategies.
Real-time feedback loops can replace outdated annual reports, ensuring faster, smarter adaptation.
Time for a Smarter Fight Against Illicit Trade
We can’t just outmuscle illicit trade—we need to outthink it.
Tackling this issue requires breaking silos, using smarter data, and continuously adapting our approach.
Having worked with enterprises, policymakers, and enforcement agencies, I’ve seen how agile thinking can transform enforcement, economic development, and community intervention. From co-designing grassroots programmes to advising organisations on data-driven enforcement strategies, the key is collaboration and adaptability.
If you’re working in this space—whether in policy, enforcement, or economic intervention—let’s talk. The fight against illicit trade isn’t just about cracking down on crime—it’s about creating a system where people don’t need to turn to it in the first place. And that starts with working smarter, not harder.
